Seconds later a car darts out of my cul-de-sac. I’m not saying which neighbor it might have been even though I recognize the vehicle. It pulled out at a high rate of speed and stopped opposite for a few seconds (probably to roll down the window and say “follow me”) which is what the cars did. Young, forbidden love! Ah, the summer time life we don’t care to explain to adults. Been there many times. I’ll bet Dad and Mom saw the secret signal and instant reaction from their driveway just as I did. They are not clueless. Letting it happen must be a bitch for parents.

Frankly Jihadists would be a much more colorful story but I’m betting on young love. It’s that time of the year in Boise. Night time temp is projected to dip to 70F. A wonderful night for cruising and the magic of life. Sunday is not your normal cruising night, so it might be a bomb making terrorist exchange. It could happen! (see my previous post about (un)certainty). No one can tame hormones with statistics

Think about it. If the chance of me not being arrested for robbing a bank was .50 (50%) and then if I robbed a second back, I’ve got a 25% chance of getting away with both robbery of both #1 #2. That makes sense, right? Eventually the bank robber is caught. Yes, I’m waving my hands past all kinds of details statisticians care to opine about. Probabilities (always between 0 and 1, or 0 to 100%, or impossible and dead certain), they multiply and the result is always lower than either #1 or #2.

What happens if a series of wild ass guess (WAG) is applied for three events. .5 X .5 X .5 = 12.5% chance of them all being correct. Fortunately, religion provides 100% certainty for all three in my example 1 X 1 X 1 = 1. I’m not picking on religion. Might as well be deep liberal or deep conservative principles. People like certainty, despite the evidence that it doesn’t exist. Once probability of any action/prediction drops below 1 (100%) then it’s a slow (or fast) slide toward all future predictions being completely wrong, when viewed in toto.

When the UN IPCC says there’s a 90% (their best guess) chance that the climate is going to fry everyone in a 100 years, the glaciers and ice caps will melt and the sea rising 50 ft. and if it not freezing, it’s burning hot or rain forest or desert. All those predictions, with their own long chains of questionable probabilities. How many are going to come true? When newly observed data resets one probability in the chains to something small like 10%, what happens to the total? It’s called FAIL.

Given their past record, what is the probability of anything useful from the UN. Vanishingly small, IMO.

They want to transition their customers from their mail servers (tragically coupled to Postini) to Google’s gmail. Not a bad idea. Postini sucks, and running your own mail servers sucks even worse. Just ask me: I run a tiny exim4 mail server to smarthost any mail sent from background scripts and such. This is not so benign a change for edge cases (Linux). Oh, I managed to it get to work. I think, but in between the cable modem drop outs, I noticed some other things I don’t like about cableone.net. They intercept the http requests (web page loads). They count your gigabytes of download and upload and they can block/redirect access to a site (like to my puny, puny, 250 hits a day www.mvmanila.com barely used by me or anyone else). That’s probably an error on their part but somehow, I have to fix their zealous over-reaching big brother reach around?

Then again, I can call their tech support at midnight. So I did from my throw away cell phone (sound quality: crap). Eventually I got Nick. Who explained that shit has broken loose all over their phone center about the google switchover email and the big wigs at the puzzle palace don’t tell people at his level how or why his mothership fucked it up or what they are doing or when it’s going to be good. That’s candor and it’s damn refreshing. Can’t hate the guy for telling the truth. I like the truth.

I said “I’m glad I’m not you” and he laughed and laughed. Even on a crap-phone I can make people laugh. (crap-phone is a Dave Barry ™ idiom that may not be registered at the Department of Everything You Can Say)

I woke up this morning to see a 13% gain in one day. WTF! It’s not a lot of money at stake but it’s a small joy when my ideas work well. Apparently, they announced a licensing deal with the Evil One (MSFT), details undisclosed, of course.

Questions form. MSFT could buy ARMH from tips left on the table in the Mr. Softy cafeteria. Except the anti-trust folks might object (that could create a real stink, assuming that part of overnment still works). MSFT doesn’t do hardware. Yes, they make XBOX and mice and keyboards but those aren’t shining examples of profit. Hell, they probably have licensed the ARM design two or three times in various R&D divisions in small quantities.

Some folks think they’ll do an mPad tablet or an mPhone, It would not be the first time they’ve tried to catch up to Apple by following the Apple trend. Only it’s different this time. Remember all the innovation they promised to deliver over the last 10 years? I do. What happened after I warned the old employer not to get in bed with them anymore than they were (can one be half a whore? only on the weekdays? Does sleeping with IBM and Oracle count?)

I think my predictions are playing out but I’m not there, not my problem. I’m long AAPL, and ARMH. For now. The wheel will turn again.

It’s blatant and subtle if you think about it, which is what real intellectuals do.

What can I say? I misjudged him. A lot. My 1970 opinion was wrong in the lens of time. I wonder what other beliefs I formed back then that were never accurate and appear foolish in the lens of time? There is a point where individuals choose to stop learning. They know everything they care to know. It might be age 20 or age 90, but at some point, we don’t want any new information. Particularly, we don’t want information that we were wrong, then or now.

It’s kind of sad but that’s how it works. The last couple of days have a wonderful example of the No Spin Zone at FOX, spinning like mad. Yeah, they admitted tonight to not doing any fact checking about the Sherrod story. They were too busy trying to frame the Tea Party in Fox’s terms and to jump in front of the parade that they couldn’t fact check a freaking blogger. Idiots or Pinheads, you decide. No free pass from me to the other news network, either. They stopped reporting agenda free news long ago. We can safely promote Fox to the same low pedestal as ABC, CBS, NBC (and MSNBC) and CNN. They’ll all equal now!. Fox is a real news network. The National Enquirer (Space Aliens Abducted My Baby) and Rolling Stone are more likely to dig into facts and find the truth than the main stream media (Fox is mainstream, just ask them, they’ll tell you all about it). I guess I can’t stop learning. I can’t trust journalists to keep me informed.

The drive north did occur and I got home on 7/15. Ten hours of driving each way along a road I don’t love all that much and it turns out it’s even worse in the summer with the heat and some insane traffic jams from all the other summer travelers.

Back home, one garage door decided to fail while I was gone. I can’t even open it manually so the Jeep is locked in until the door gets repaired by someone who knows about these things. I found a few things that aren’t right and applied my best fix it. Didn’t work. A fail is a FAIL.

On the other hand the Porsche with it’s new tires was a relative joy. Except when the road surface is crap, the traffic too much for the roads available ( *cough* Washington St, *cough*) It seems like Seattle (in all the meanings of the word) has expanded several hundred miles east. Soon it will meet the fellow travelers, failure seeking California and Oregon. Oregon still keeps their rural roads in good great shape but I fear the Blue State disease will get to them too.

What is Blue State Disease, you might ask? It’s a belief system that if they collectively wish hard enough the solution will appear from on high. A Wizard of OZ, Dorothy , click the ruby slippers and it will be OK. Just wish and wish. An oddly religious belief that the left side of the aisle cant see how close their love of mystical magical government is no different that the right hand side’s belief in the return of Christ. Or the mythical magical power of Allah or Jehovah or… If we just wish hard enough, then Green Jobs will appear and we will be saved from certain doom. If we demand technological magic, it will appear. Our hubris is staggering.

It’s almost a hoot to see Fox and CNN try to redefine the Tea Party with their pundit sized sound bites. The left thinks it is a bunch of racists & Christian fundamentalists. The far right thinks its a bunch of “could be fundamentalists” if only they are properly guided. EPIC FAIL on both sides. Keep your religion to yourself, respect the rights of others and adhere to the Constitution (where our rights are enumerated). Stop increasing the deficit with “I wish” wet dreams.

It’s a lonely sad hoot, like two owls in the old growth forest that can’t find a mate, calling into the dark lonely night and no one answers their call. A sad hoot indeed on a slow news weekend.

From what the TV people tell me, the G20 meeting in Montreal was mostly the Socialist EU countries claiming that the world needs to balance their budgets because they ran out of “other peoples” money to spend. Tough times ahead, it’s gonna suck to be there but Free people don’t want to loan them money any longer. Obama would prefer they keep spending freely as he (and GWB) did. Yeah, government spending will solve everything. It’s a delicious irony that the G19 are saying “No. that didn’t work out so well”.

In the local newspaper was a picture of a so called “protester” in Montreal throwing a chair through a plate glass window. Dressed head to toe in black Ninja garb, his face covered in a stocking mask favored by all the big time terrorists (and Ninjas and Ninja Turtles, too). I don’t know what his beef was. Maybe the bank denied him credit or he’s just trashing the building to impress a woman (I’m a loose cannon, babe!). Or maybe he’s protesting against globalism or pushing for it, but only on his enlightened terms. Or he hates Capitalist Symbols. I can’t know.

The fun part is the picture clearly shows a cell phone on his belt. Gray/Grey which just totally ruins the Black Ninja Destroyer look. What? You can’t smash a window without being in constant contact using a Capitalist cell phone? I’ll bet he was waiting for GF to call and tell him what kind of Tofu he should pick up for tonights dinner.

I haven’t said much about the so-called Blacklist of skeptical climate scientists. Why bother? Even for social scientists, it’s butt poor methodology. That it was presented in a National Academy of Sciences journal is the the real problem. NAS hints that only these those White list enlightened folks should make presentations and write assessments for politicians and (one might argue) influence policymakers. NAS does used to have that ability. Now I have put the NAS and anything from the UN into the same place: Political Advocacy groups to lobby for their version of the “ruling class” that knows what is best for you and me.

Post modern, post normal. Are Facts and Science relative to context in which they are presented? It makes sense when looking at the arts. I think Disco was a sad moment in Music and Rap and hip-hop are no better. Millions of people think I’m wrong. There context is bigger than my context. I submit to popular opinion. But, then again the arts evolve to fit their social context (and some would suggest, create that context). I might be correct if I wait.

Manipulating the social context (aka “the message”) is what politicians do. It’s never worked for long in a democracy because those pesky facts control the world. Facts can’t be wished away or new facts wished into existence by the newest context switch. So every few years the context makers get switched out like playlists on your iPod.

You can’t change facts with opinion polls and by refining the “message presentation”. Try it. Wish away the shock you’ll get if you stick a finger in a wall outlet. (actually I think you can stick a finger in a socket if you’re not well grounded, but that kind of makes my point)

“The oil-exporting country is struggling with 30 percent inflation and a deepening recession.”

Let’s follow the yellow brick road, take the left at Pelosi Ave. Turning right to Boehner Blvd (under construction) is a not place I would steer towards. That guy is one scary vindictive “leader in waiting”. Like Nancy was when she wasn’t running the show. Either one just oozes sulfurous evil from my TV set. Can’t I find a better road?

We are leading a bipartisan effort to put a lid on carbon pollution and in so doing unleash a massive investment in clean energy technology. If we can tackle this issue in a predictable, transparent and free-market way, we can create millions of high-paying jobs while limiting the worst effects of climate change and reducing both our dependence on foreign oil and the risk of another oil spill.

We have authored a bill that takes on this challenge, empowering America’s private sector to take the lead in the $6 trillion global energy market while shutting out Wall Street speculators and protecting low- and middle-income families from associated price increases for energy.

Damn, those Senators are good! Let’s list the key talking points and add some perspective.
1. unleash a massive investment in clean energy technology.
How will it differ from the investment/research already occurring in a free market system. What if it doesn’t work? Do you have a backup plan? Can we get our money back?
2. Free-market way.
Free market hand waving. It’s supposed to be an invisible hand that works best.
3. Create millions of high paying jobs
4. Limit the worst effect of climate change
5. Reduce dependency on Foreign Oil
3, 4, and 5 assumes that this massive investment finds a better solution, faster.
6. Empower America’s private sector to lead
Is there evidence we aren’t leading in inventing things that make cost effective? sense? It is true we don’t lead in stuff that doesn’t work and we are closing the nonsense gap. Let our betters in Europe lead on stuff that doesn’t work.
7. shut out Wall Street speculators
So the money comes from Taxes. There’s only three choices. I lend my money (investment) or its taken from me (taxes) or I give it away (Charity). If you have a savings account, you are an investor.
8. Protect low and middle class from price increases.
I wonder who is going to pay for the massive investment if it’s not investors/savers.
9. Lower risks of an oil spill
Pandering to crisis of the day. Have you no shame, Senators?

It appears that the proposed legislation would increase your family of four energy bill by $1100/yr but, but, they’ll give you back $825. That means you new energy tax would only be $275/yr. If you think about how you use energy , that means 1, 2 and three, person families get a higher per capita tab than the mythical 4, and 4+ family. If you have seven children, living on welfare and can barely pay the electric bill now, I don’t see how waiting a year for your dividend is going to pay next month’s much higher bill is protecting the lower class. Or protecting the middle class. Or even punish the upper class. celebrities, and governmental privileged who fly private jets and command motorcades of security. Yeah they use more energy (producing more Co2) than the rest of the “small” people who are not elected to positions of respect. I suspect the upper class excess isn’t enough to make a difference. It’s only $1100 to the rich too. more or less. They’ll spend $825 for an accountant to get their $275 dividend. That must be the job creation program. Millions of accountants and government administrators. Green Jobs, every last one of them. Trust them.

There are speculators and their are criminals. I wish there was a derivative I could trade that the US government and populace will become just a dumb as the Europeans. There isn’t (gold won’t work for that, directly). Interest rate spreads and currency, perhaps.

If this legislation gets legs, the proper way forward for evil doers is to organize. Form a union of accounts and upper level government fiscal watchdogs. For the right salary, I could lead that union.